By Mark Trumbull
Provided by 
Actions
by federal regulators open a new phase in America's banking crisis --
with the government stepping toward its most interventionist
financial-market role in nearly 15 years.
The latest moves
are intended to restore confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
enterprises that play a central role in the home-loan market. Also, the
faltering bank IndyMac reopened Monday with a new owner, the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corp.
Since the subprime lending problem
emerged in earnest a year ago, financial institutions and regulators
have scrambled to contain the damage. They have made some progress, but
this new phase signals that the private sector probably is not capable
of resolving the crisis on its own.
Among the reasons: Some
banks are having trouble raising new capital from investors, a key step
to maintaining solvency when loan losses are rising. Also, a weak
economy is adding to loan defaults that were already high because of
imprudent mortgage lending during the housing boom.
"There's
no question in my mind that this crisis will be much worse than the
S&L [savings and loan] crisis" of the late 1980s in its cost to
government, says Kenneth Thomas, a finance expert at the University of
Pennsylvania's Wharton School in Philadelphia. Government "will have to
play a bigger role."
America and other nations have been down
this road before. Banking crises have emerged periodically, often after
an era of good times when financial firms lent too freely and inflows
of foreign money were large.
In the early 1990s, the government spent about $150 billion to dispose of failed savings-and-loan institutions.
The latest government moves include:
- Treasury
Secretary Henry Paulson said on July 13 he is seeking
congressional approval for the US Treasury to temporarily buy and hold
stock in Fannie and Freddie, which operate in the private sector but
with government-chartered missions.
- Also on the thirteenth,
the Federal Reserve said it will lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
should that prove necessary. Separately, Secretary Paulson is seeking
approval to expand a Treasury line of credit to the two firms.
- IndyMac,
a large mortgage lender, reopened July 14 under the control
of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The FDIC seized the bank Friday
after a run by depositors threatened its survival. The agency plans to
operate the bank until it can be sold.
- The FDIC, in a
statement related to the IndyMac takeover, sought to clarify the
insurance coverage it provides, which covers bank accounts up to
$100,000.
In recent months, the Federal Reserve has
taken many actions designed to help banks avoid collapse. It has been
extending credit through various lending operations - including the
unusual step of lending to securities firms as well as traditional
banks. It has also reduced short-term interest rates, which reduces
banks' borrowing costs.
In March, it provided a $30 billion
loan that enabled JPMorgan Chase to buy Bear Stearns when that
investment bank was on the verge of bankruptcy.
But the Fed can do only so much, given the scale of losses in the banking industry.
Analysts
see the central bank's efforts as a prelude to more involvement by bank
regulators in the Treasury Department. The FDIC, for example, has been
adding staff to the division that deals with bank failures.
"We're
entering a new phase, but it's a new phase of a typical crisis
progression," says Joseph Mason, a financial industry consultant
affiliated with Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge.
What remains to be seen, he says, is how fast government regulators will ramp up their role.
One
role of bank regulators now, given high levels of fear and uncertainty
in the financial markets, is to compel better disclosure of where
problem assets lie, says Mr. Mason.
"It's a matter of
choosing your poison," he says. "Revealing those exposures will have to
result in a substantial hit to many banks."
But delay in
revealing the extent of the trouble may only make the credit problems
longer and deeper - and worse for economic growth. Eventually, in
addition to closing failed banks and selling problem loans, what's
needed is a "recapitalization" of the industry - by investors or by the
US government - so it can return to health.
"We need that [new] capital to restore economic growth," Mason says.
One
risk is if people with accounts larger than the $100,000 that are
federally insured start pulling money out of banks, further weakening
the banks' position.
"Americans have $6.9 trillion in deposit
institutions, but only $4.2 trillion of those deposits are insured,
according to the latest FDIC year-end statement," economist Ed Yardeni
writes in a note to clients.
A crucial issue for the economy
is not just the health of banks, but also the ability to keep credit
flowing into the troubled housing market. That's why government
officials are rushing to ensure that Fannie and Freddie have the
liquidity they need.
"Ultimately, we do not view these
measures, dramatic as they look, as either a turning point for the US
housing market or as a sign that the downturn will be much worse than
previously believed," economists at the global investment firm Goldman
Sachs wrote Monday. "They simply reaffirm ... that the government will
do everything it can to avert a meltdown in the conforming [loan]
mortgage market."
Still, the magnitude of potential losses on
subprime mortgages and other loans is sizable. Some estimates put the
total at about $1 trillion.
The Bear Stearns case has raised
the question of whether US regulators now consider the largest
investment banks - firms that originate securities such as stocks and
bonds - to be "too big to fail." That is, the government will bail them
out rather than risk a collapse that would ripple through the entire
financial system.
Responding to a direct question at a House
hearing July 10 about the four largest investment banks, Fed Chairman
Ben Bernanke declined to call them too big to fail. But they play a
larger role in the financial system than they used to - issuing
securities that package mortgage and credit-card loans, for example.
Taxpayer
dollars may or may not be needed before the crisis is over. The Fed has
been loaning banks money with the expectation of repayment, taking
collateral as a backstop. The FDIC's costs are typically covered by
deposit-insurance fees - paid in effect by depositors themselves.